TY - JOUR T1 - Polls and votes; The trial-heat presidential election forecasting model, certainty, and political campaigns AU - Campbell, James E. PY - 1996 DO - 10.1177/1532673X9602400402 SP - 408 EP - 433 JO - American Politics Quarterly VL - 24 IS - 42 SN - 0044-7803 ER -